188体育手机投注-Asymco http://www.all-fight.com 太阳,07年10月2018 15:26:16 + 0000 en - us 每小时 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 14024674 赞助商:Appfigures Explorer - 移动应用市场情报 http://www.all-fight.com/2018/10/04/sponsor-appfigures-explorer-mobile-app-market-intelligence/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/10/04/sponsor-appfigures-explorer-mobile-app-market-intelligence/#respond 星期四,2018年10月4日17:33:50 +0000 Horace Dediu Uncategorized http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8146 随着手机市场的日益饱和,拥有正确的数据对于做出正确的决定是至关重要的这# 8217;s探险家,一个新的移动智能平台的人在Appfigures,发挥作用了With comprehensive coverage across every major market, including Apple and Google&#8217;s app stores, Appfigures Explorer puts all the actionable insights at your&#8230; < p >随着手机市场日益饱和,拥有正确的数据对于做出正确的决定是至关重要的That&#8217;s where <a href="https://synd.co/2R4FAWj">Explorer</a>, a new mobile intelligence platform from the folks at <a href="https://synd.co/2R4FAWj">Appfigures</a>, comes into play.</p> <p>With comprehensive coverage across every major market, including Apple and Google&#8217;s app stores, <a href="https://synd.co/2R4FAWj">Appfigures Explorer</a> puts all the actionable insights at your fingertips, with audience demographics, downloads and revenue estimates, where and how apps advertise, and much more.</p> <p>Whether you&#8217;re evaluating competitors, analyzing specific market segments, discovering new opportunities, or just keeping tabs on the market, <a href="https://synd.co/2R4FAWj">Appfigures Explorer</a> has the insights you need.</p> <p><strong>The first 100 188体育手机投注-Asymco readers to subscribe will <a href="https://synd.co/2R4FAWj">get 50% off</a> their first month</strong>.</p> <div id="attachment_8147" style="width: 630px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://synd.co/2R4FAWj"><img class="wp-image-8147 size-large" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/twitter-ad-2-620x349.png" alt="Appfigures Explorer" width="620" height="349" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/twitter-ad-2-620x349.png 620w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/twitter-ad-2-440x248.png 440w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/twitter-ad-2-768x433.png 768w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/twitter-ad-2.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Appfigures Explorer – Mobile App Market Intelligence</p></div> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/10/04/sponsor-appfigures-explorer-mobile-app-market-intelligence/feed/ 0 8146 交通购置成本 http://www.all-fight.com/2018/10/04/traffic-acquisition-costs/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/10/04/traffic-acquisition-costs/的评论 星期四,2018年10月04 14:52:23 + 0000 Horace Dediu 金融 http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8142 今年6月,苹果公司报道,总共支付了1000亿美元给开发商18这些图在App Store的10年历史,使付款的进展,因此收入和支出容易可追踪其他定期报告数字业务部门收入# 8230; < p >报道,今年6月,苹果向开发商支付了总计1000亿美元That is the <em>18th </em>such figure given in the 10 year history of App Store, making the progress of payments and hence revenue and spending easily trackable.</p> <p>The other regularly reported figure is the business segment revenue where App sales are currently allocatedNow called &#8220;Services&#8221; this omnibus segment includes many other sources of revenues such as:</p> <ul> <li>Digital Content (Books, Music downloads, Video downloads&#8211;including TV shows and movies and movie rentals.)</li> <li>AppleCare, Apple&#8217;s extended warranty service.</li> <li>Apple Pay, transaction fees</li> <li>Apple Pro Apps, including Final Cut, Logic Pro, Motion, Aperture</li> <li>Licensing including &#8220;Made for iPhone/iPad&#8221;</li> <li>One-time settlements of various lawsuits.</li> <li>Other Services revenues which include <ul> <li>Apple iCloud-related services</li> <li>Music Match</li> <li>Music subscriptions</li> <li>Other third party subscriptions (commissions)</li> <li>Third party licenses</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p>This combined Services segment is significant with $35 billion revenues in the last 12 months这与2016年服务业已超过250亿美元相比有了很大的提升2016年底,苹果表示,预计服务收入在2020年翻倍With a growth rate since then of 25% the company is on track to reach its target one year early.<sup>[<a href="http://www.all-fight.com/2018/10/04/traffic-acquisition-costs/#footnote_0_8142" id="identifier_0_8142" class="footnote-link footnote-identifier-link" title="To calibrate this consider that Facebook revenues for the last 12 months were $48 billion and it now has a market capitalization of $468 billion or 41% that of Apple whereas Services consists of about 14% of Apple&rsquo;s total revenues.">1</a>]</sup></p> <p>Consumer spending on Apple services includes more than what it books as revenue since only the (typically) 30% of App Revenues is considered Apple&#8217;s revenue包括支付给开发商,比林斯服务产生超过655亿美元/年This will reach $100 billion/yr in 2 years. The difference between reported revenues and consumer spending is shown in the following graphs.</p> <p><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-8143" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-04-at-5.26.35-PM-620x332.png" alt="" width="620" height="332" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-04-at-5.26.35-PM-620x332.png 620w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-04-at-5.26.35-PM-440x236.png 440w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-04-at-5.26.35-PM-768x411.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></p> <p>I described the visibility into App Store revenues (which is the orange area in the graphs above) but the other sub-segments of Services are much more difficult to ascertain特别感兴趣的是其他服务,其中包括非常高利润的服务As part of that there is a peculiar source of revenues: Google.</p> <p>It&#8217;s known that Google pays Apple for the default placement of Google search within Safari on iOS and Mac OSThat payment is registered by Google as a &#8220;Traffic Acquisition Cost&#8221; or TACTAC实质上是分发付款,分销商授予的内容是访问查询(流量)。这样Apple就可以作为Google的分销商So, for that matter, does Firefox which also receives TAC payments.</p> <p>What is peculiar is that the amount of TAC paid by Google to Apple is becoming staggering.</p> <p>A few years ago Google was paying over 20% of its revenues as TAC最近这一比例升至23%Bernstein分析师Toni Sacconaghi估计,谷歌支付苹果10亿美元的2014年TAC和支付给苹果在2017年约为30亿美元Now Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall estimates Google could pay Apple $9 billion in 2018, and $12 billion in 2019.</p> <p>This is starting to look interesting but is it believable?</p> <p>My own estimate of Apple&#8217;s Other Services (which includes TAC revenues) is a run rate of $15 billion for calendar 2018这使得来自谷歌的90亿美元(60%)相当具有挑战性,但并非不可能The remaining $6 billion needs to account for Apple&#8217;s own cloud and subscription service revenues.</p> <p>Does this make sense given Google&#8217;s spending? TAC payments to distribution partners in Q2 were $3 billion90亿美元/年的假设意味着b /季度向苹果支付2.25美元That would be 75% of Google&#8217;s distribution costsThat also sounds reasonable given the high utilization of iOS relative to any other platform.</p> <p>An increase to $12 billion for next year is also quite a claim but it certainly is possibleI don&#8217;t have a basis for making this estimate but the assumption of growth leads me to conclude that the payments are tied to actual traffic generated.</p> <p>In other words the two companies have an agreement that Apple is paid in proportion to the actual query volume generatedThis would extend the relationship from one of granting access for a number of users or devices to revenue sharing based on usage or consumption.</p> <p>Effectively Apple would have &#8220;equity&#8221; in Google search sharing in the growth as well as decline in search volume.</p> <p>The idea that Apple receives $1B/month of pure profit from Google may come as a shock就相当于苹果的20% # 8217;净利润和是一个更大的谷歌的价值转移The shock comes from considering the previously antagonistic relationship between the companies.</p> <p>The remarkable story here is how Apple has come to be such a good partnerBoth Microsoft and Google now distribute a significant portion of their products through AppleApple还是Salesforce,IBM和Cisco等企业的合作伙伴In many ways Apple is the quintessential platform company: providing a collaborative environment for competitors as much as for agnostic third parties.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> Notes: <ol class="footnotes"><li id="footnote_0_8142" class="footnote">To calibrate this consider that Facebook revenues for the last 12 months were $48 billion and it now has a market capitalization of $468 billion or 41% that of Apple whereas Services consists of about 14% of Apple&#8217;s total revenues.</li></ol> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/10/04/traffic-acquisition-costs/feed/ 98年 8142 持续更长时间 http://www.all-fight.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/#comments Thu, 13 Sep 2018 15:54:06 +0000 Horace Dediu 金融 Industry http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8126 我认为丽莎杰克逊# 8217;s表示在2018年9月iPhone发布事件也许是最有趣的和最深刻的Lisa Jackson is Apple’s vice president of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives. Previously, Ms美国杰克逊担任管理员环境保护署(EPA)在她的角色在苹果她一直负责过渡# 8230; <p>I think Lisa Jackson&#8217;s presentation at the September 2018 iPhone launch event was perhaps the most interesting and most profound.</p> <p>Lisa Jackson is Apple’s vice president of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives. Previously, Ms美国杰克逊担任管理员环境保护署(EPA)In her role at Apple she has been responsible for the transition to 100% renewable energy use by Apple across all its facilities.</p> <p>This goal has been achieved and it&#8217;s a remarkable achievement deserving congratulationsBut her presentation was noteworthy for setting a new goal.</p> <p>She laid out a goal for Apple to eliminate the need to mine new materials from the Earth.</p> <p>She said that to reach that goal Apple will have to do three things:</p> <ol> <li>Sourcing recycled or renewable materials for all products.</li> <li>Ensure that Apple products last as long as possible.</li> <li>After a long life of use, ensure that they are recycled properly.</li> </ol> <p><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-8128" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.07.56-AM-620x348.png" alt="" width="620" height="348" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.07.56-AM-620x348.png 620w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.07.56-AM-440x247.png 440w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.07.56-AM-768x430.png 768w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.07.56-AM.png 1438w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></p> <p>It&#8217;s this second point that I thought would bring the house down.</p> <p>To emphasize the second point she said Apple now strives to design and build durable products that last as long as possible这意味着持久的硬件加上持久的软件她指出,iOS 12甚至运行在iPhone 5 s,现在五岁Because iPhones last longer, you can keep using them or pass them on to someone who will continue to use them after you upgrade.</p> <p>She said that &#8220;keeping iPhones in use&#8221; is the best thing for the planet.</p> <p>At this point in the presentation I wondered if everyone would rush out of the room and call their broker to sell Apple shares投资于耐用品硬件公司的一个前提是这个值取决于频率的升级如果产品不经常更换他们不产生收入和公司销售最终市场饱和后如果上升的非常缓慢智能手机业务肯定接近饱和,让苹果产品<em>更多</ em>耐用的含义意味着更换收入会减少This anxiety around replacement rates and extended lives is used by analysts to discount future cash flows and if those lifespans are extended price targets come down.</p> <p>So why would Apple want to do this?  What is the logic of this durability focus as a business model? It may be good for the environment but is it good for the bottom line?</p> <p>Of course, there would be not much business without an environment and we should all strive for sustainability但这是一个存在主义的观察,讨论一下# 8217;防守The important call to make is that Apple is making a bet that <strong>sustainability is a growth business</strong>.</p> <p>Fundamentally, Apple is betting on <em>having</em> customers not <em>selling</em> them products.</p> <p>The purpose of Apple as a firm is to create and preserve customers and to create and preserve productsThis is fundamental and not fully recognized.</p> <p>To understand how this works, if you look at the pricing graph below, you can read it as a story of increasing prices for a decreasing market share但是如果你明白产品的每一项进步增加吸收性<一口> (< a href = " http://www.all-fight.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/ # footnote_0_8126 " id =“identifier_0_8126”class =“footnote-link footnote-identifier-link”标题= "不溶性,效用是非常危险和挑大梁年代重要的资格higher storage capacity that 188体育手机投注 hunger for or better cameras that increase picture taking from features that are neat but don&rsquo;t get utilized">1</a>]</sup> utility then the cost per use remains steady or declines.</p> <p><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-8129" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.42.33-AM-613x620.png" alt="" width="613" height="620" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.42.33-AM-613x620.png 613w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.42.33-AM-435x440.png 435w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-13-at-8.42.33-AM-768x777.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 613px) 100vw, 613px" /></p> <p>An iPhone at $1200 may be less expensive than an iPhone at $600 if the $1200 version lasts twice as long as is used twice as much each day1200美元的手机以两倍的价格提供4倍的电费,使其价格降低一半By making more durable products, both in terms of hardware and software, the customer base is satisfied and preserved.</p> <p>Practically, the initial buyer may resell the iPhone and that 2nd hand devices may be sold yet againThis means an iPhone could have three users over its life and thus it could end up expanding the audience for Apple by a factor of 2 or even 3.</p> <p>The expanded audience is offered accessories, additional products such as wearables and, of course, servicesThese residual business models are certainly profitable, perhaps even more so than the iPhone.</p> <p>Overall Apple has 1.3 billion devices in use and perhaps as many as 1 billion usersThis base is certain to expand and it will expand more rapidly with durable devices and software.</p> <p>This is a hardware-as-platform and hardware-as-subscription model that no other hardware company can match不仅是高度负责,但这# 8217;年代高防御性的,因此一个伟大的生意Planned obsolescence is a bad business and is not defensible.</p> <p>Therefore the statement that Apple now prioritizes device and software longevity is very important and I consider it one of the most important statements made during the 2018 iPhone launch event.</p> Notes: <ol class="footnotes"><li id="footnote_0_8126" class="footnote">Insoluble  utility is very dangerous and it&#8217;s important to qualify e.ghigher storage capacity that 188体育手机投注 hunger for or better cameras that increase picture taking from features that are neat but don&#8217;t get utilized</li></ol> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/feed/ 80年 8126年 赞助商:WebSonar图书馆 http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/23/sponsor-%e2%80%8bwebsonar-libraries/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/23/sponsor-%e2%80%8bwebsonar-libraries/的评论 星期四,2018年8月23日19:23:59 + 0000 Horace Dediu Uncategorized http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8119 Project Xanadu was the first hypertext project; founded in 1960 by Ted NelsonNelson predicted many of the features of today&#8217;s hypertext systemsThree of the key requirements were that every Xanadu server can be operated independently or in a network, every document can consist of any data type and every user can search, retrieve,&#8230; <p>Project Xanadu was the first hypertext project; founded in 1960 by Ted NelsonNelson predicted many of the features of today&#8217;s hypertext systemsThree of the key requirements were that every Xanadu server can be operated independently or in a network, every document can consist of any data type and every user can search, retrieve, create and store documents.</p> <p><a href="https://synd.co/2BCzHfs">WebSonar Libraries</a> provide these features today and also include the ability to annotate at the page level for book marking and collaboration我们已经解决了数字监控问题<a href="https://synd.co/2BCzHfs">WebSonar Libraries</a> link the iPad to the Mac providing a new scalable, educational solution that is safer than FaceBook by eliminating ads and tracking.</p> <p>Your content can now be served and shared on your own computer, at home or hosted in a Data Center without third party influence or controlOwners can set their library access credentials to Private or Public.</p> <p><a href="https://synd.co/2BCzHfs"><img class="alignnone wp-image-8121 size-large" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/securesmall-620x522.jpg" alt="" width="620" height="522" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/securesmall-620x522.jpg 620w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/securesmall-440x371.jpg 440w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/securesmall-768x647.jpg 768w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/securesmall.jpg 800w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></a></p> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/23/sponsor-%e2%80%8bwebsonar-libraries/feed/ 3. 8119 假日购物季的预览 http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/23/preview-of-the-holiday-quarter/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/23/preview-of-the-holiday-quarter/的评论 星期四,2018年8月23日19:17:36 +0000 Horace Dediu 金融 市场 http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8114 每年10月,在其财政年度结束时,Apple都会提交10K表格或年度报告In this report the company includes a section titled &#8220;Capital Assets&#8221; which details expenditures for capital equipmentThis is last year&#8217;s entry: The Company’s capital expenditures were $14.9 billion during 2017The Company anticipates utilizing approximately $16.0 billion&#8230; < p >每10月财年年底,苹果文件形式10 k或年度报告In this report the company includes a section titled &#8220;Capital Assets&#8221; which details expenditures for capital equipmentThis is last year&#8217;s entry:</p> <blockquote><p>The Company’s capital expenditures were $14.9 billion during 2017The Company anticipates utilizing approximately $16.0 billion for capital expenditures during 2018, which includes product tooling and manufacturing process equipment; data centers; corporate facilities and infrastructure, including information systems hardware, software and enhancements; and retail store facilities.</p></blockquote> <p>Note that there are categories of spending detailed and that their order might indicate the degree of such spending, suggesting that product tooling and manufacturing equipment is likely to be the costliest category.</p> <p>After this report, during subsequent quarters the company may update this forecast of spendingIn the last (third fiscal) quarter the entry was as follows:</p> <blockquote><p>The Company’s capital expenditures were $11.1 billion during the first nine months of 2018The Company anticipates utilizing approximately $17.0 billion for capital expenditures during 2018, which includes product tooling and manufacturing process equipment; data centers; corporate facilities and infrastructure, including information systems hardware, software and enhancements; and retail store facilities.</p></blockquote> <p>Note that the forecast of $16.0 billion was updated to $17.0 billion and the first 9 months&#8217; expenditures were $11.1Since there is only one quarter remaining<sup>[<a href="http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/23/preview-of-the-holiday-quarter/#footnote_0_8114" id="identifier_0_8114" class="footnote-link footnote-identifier-link" title="and since at the time the quarterly report is filed, only about 2 months remain in the quarter">1</a>]</sup> it&#8217;s reasonable to assume that the company&#8217;s forecasts are more likely to be precise and that therefore the difference between total expected spending and already spent, i.e.f $5.9 billion remains to be spent.</p> <p>The actual spending is not recorded quarterly but an approximate value is reported in the Cash Flow statement as &#8220;Payments for acquisition of property, plant and equipment&#8221;可以跟踪,但不等于完全的资本支出For example, the quote above says expenditures were $11.1 billion through first 9 months but the total of all payments for acquisition of PP&amp;E is $10.272 billion.</p> <p>Minor<sup>[<a href="http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/23/preview-of-the-holiday-quarter/#footnote_1_8114" id="identifier_1_8114" class="footnote-link footnote-identifier-link" title="To the extent that&nbsp;$1 billion can be considered minor">2</a>]</sup> differences, aside, this forecast and actual spending and payments data is significant because it is highly correlated to Apple&#8217;s overall business假设制造设备和信息系统硬件的支出(即data centers) is in support of the iOS device sales and services we can try to show how sales correspond to spending with the following graph:</p> <p><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-8115" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.08.26-PM-620x615.png" alt="" width="620" height="615" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.08.26-PM-620x615.png 620w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.08.26-PM-170x170.png 170w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.08.26-PM-440x437.png 440w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.08.26-PM-768x762.png 768w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.08.26-PM.png 1058w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></p> <p>Here sales are shown as a bar graph and the various spending forecasts and actual payments are shown as lines还注意到支出和销售抵消了四分之一会计年度用于支出,日历年用于销售The reason is that spending is presumed to lead sales by approximately one quarter.</p> <p>There are some notable discrepancies, especially with the 2012/2013 period when spending was brought forward a quarter thus showing a surplus to forecast in 2012 and a deficit in 2013But apart from that, there is a broad correlation between spending and sales.</p> <p>This means that the CapEx forecast in October is a good indicator of sales in the following year.</p> <p>In fact, the relationship is can be shown with four scatter plots, one for each of the published figure:</p> <p><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-8116" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.10.56-PM-620x481.png" alt="" width="620" height="481" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.10.56-PM-620x481.png 620w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.10.56-PM-440x341.png 440w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Screen-Shot-2018-08-23-at-9.10.56-PM-768x595.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></p> <p>I caution that this is a yearly forecast and it is revised through the year on a quarterly basis, sometimes up, sometimes down这# 8217;因此不是一个完美的指标,当然销售和支出之间的关系并不是完全可预测的Note that there are four types of spending that can be measured, two are forecasts (one year and revised) and two are actuals (cash flow payments and reported total expenditures)</p> <p>We can measure the best variable that fits the sales data through the coefficient of determination or R-squaredThe best fit seems to be with Payments for acquisition of property, plant and equipment (R-squared of 0.976).</p> <p>This gives the formula for yearly sales as 15.915x + 15809 where x is the expected total spendingThat spending to date has been $10.272 billion and it&#8217;s probably going to exceed $16 billion for the year.</p> <p>Using $16 billion spending total, we can calculate iOS products and services for calendar 2018 of $270.45 billion.</p> <p>iOS and Services sales to date have been $103.2 billion with an estimate for next quarter of about 54.3 billion (based on guidance) and thus a total through Q3 of $157.5 billionSubtracting this from the $270.45 billion expectation from the calculation above gives a fourth calendar quarter iOS revenue of $113 billion.</p> <p>Adding $7 billion for the Mac results in a total net sales of 120billionThis therefore is what I&#8217;d put forward as a reasonable target for CQ4.</p> <p>Note that this is equivalent to a growth of 36% from the 2017 fourth quarter.</p> <p>[UPDATE: Original version used total sales rather than iOS related products and services (i.e不包括Mac)The text has been edited to reflect the correct figures.]</p> Notes: <ol class="footnotes"><li id="footnote_0_8114" class="footnote">and since at the time the quarterly report is filed, only about 2 months remain in the quarter</li><li id="footnote_1_8114" class="footnote">To the extent that $1 billion can be considered minor</li></ol> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/23/preview-of-the-holiday-quarter/feed/ 6 8114年 微型移动峰会2018年9月5日,哥本哈根 http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/02/micromobility-summit-2018-september-5-copenhagen/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/02/micromobility峰会- 2018 - 5 - 9月copenhagen/ #回应 星期四,02年2018年8月10:49:10 + 0000 Horace Dediu Uncategorized http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8109 去年一年# 8217;s Micromobility峰会是一个伟大的成功我们有一个伟大的投票率,主持人和观众开会讨论这个新模态转变的未来看起来是如此迫在眉睫也许部分是因为我们的会议,已经加速资本的数量分配,企业参与和使用都爆炸了强生的# 8230; <p>Last year&#8217;s <a href="http://www.all-fight.com/2017/07/09/join-the-micromobility-summit-in-copenhagen-september-6/">Micromobility Summit</a> was a great successWe had a great turnout and the presenters and audience met to discuss the future of this new modal shift that seemed so imminent.</p> <p>Perhaps partly because of our meeting, the shift has since accelerated分配的资金,公司参与和使用都爆炸了In one year micromobility went from a curious hobby to the biggest startup story in the world now attracting mainstream attention.</p> <p>Bird, Lime, Skip have pioneered scooter sharing瑞士的Smide正在提供电动自行车共享,Uber,Lyft和Didi进行了收购更多的原始设备制造商和一级供应商赌这个领域,我们有几百个新的电动自行车模式进入欧洲市场并使用micromobility几十亿的车辆里程400 million users are registered in China alone with 70 million daily active.</p> <p>Micromobility Summit 2017 was the catalyst of several startups that operate in the space todayIt was great opportunity for like-minded entrepreneurs to discuss this market.</p> <p>It&#8217;s time then to follow-up with the <a href="http://techfestival.co/event/micromobility-summit-2018/">second Micromobility Summit</a>Coming almost exactly a year after the first, we will conduct a similar approach: speakers and panels covering the following topics:</p> <ul> <li>Micromobility definition and categorization</li> <li>Micromobility competitiveness relative to incumbents</li> <li>Micromobility business models and asymmetry to macromobility</li> <li>Regulation and evolution of normative behaviors</li> </ul> <p>I will present research currently under peer review on the competitiveness of new modalities relative to existing and their conversion potential. Titled “When Micromobility Attacks”, it&#8217;s an adaptation of a paper just submitted to a peer-reviewed journal (written with ETH Zurich)</p> <p>If you would be interested in attending or speaking let me know through the sign-up sheet at the <a href="https://techfestival.typeform.com/to/q82W7b">event web page</a>.</p> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/08/02/micromobility峰会- 2018 - 9月- 5 - copenhagen/feed/ 0 8109年 赞助商:SaneBox http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/27/sponsor-%e2%80%8bsanebox/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/27/sponsor-%e2%80%8bsanebox/回应 星期五,2018年7月27日11:37:28 + 0000 Horace Dediu 赞助商 http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8105 我们与188体育手机投注-Asymco合作,为新用户带来25美元的独家优惠只需通过此链接注册即可SaneBox就像一个超级聪明的助手,多年来一直和你在一起,知道什么对你很重要它不重要的邮件从收件箱到一个新的文件夹,总结了他们在一个# 8230; <p>我们与188体育手机投注-Asymco合作,为新用户带来25美元的独家优惠Just sign up through <a href="http://synd.co/2mSYfIJ">this link</a>.</p> <p><a href="http://synd.co/2mSYfIJ">SaneBox</a> is like a super-smart assistant who’s been with you for years and knows what’s important to you它不重要的邮件从收件箱到一个新的文件夹并总结消化,在那里你可以很快bulk-process他们An average SaneBox customer saves 12+ hours/month.</p> <p>Additional features:</p> <ul> <li>SaneBlackHole – Instantly unsubscribe from annoying marketers, mailing lists and newsletters</li> <li>SaneReminders – Get a reminder if someone doesn’t respond to you</li> <li>SaneSnooze – Snooze non-urgent emails</li> <li>…and more features to enhance your existing email setup</li> </ul> <p>With glowing reviews from TechCrunch, Forbes, The New York Times and emailers everywhere, you can rest assured that you will <a href="http://synd.co/2mSYfIJ">fall in love with email again</a>And it’s risk free—cancel and your email returns to the way it was.</p> <div id="attachment_8106" style="width: 630px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://www.sanebox.com/188体育手机投注-Asymco"><img class="wp-image-8106 size-large" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/before_after_L-2-620x325.png" alt="SaneBox" width="620" height="325" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/before_after_L-2-620x325.png 620w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/before_after_L-2-440x230.png 440w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/before_after_L-2-768x402.png 768w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/before_after_L-2.png 800w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">SaneBox</p></div> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/27/sponsor-%e2%80%8bsanebox/feed/ 0 8105 Apple Summit NYC http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/27/apple-summit-nyc/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/27/apple-summit-nyc/的评论 星期五,27七月2018 11:29:59 +0000 Horace Dediu Uncategorized http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8102 我们很自豪地宣布第二个投资者峰会致力于苹果的长期投资者It&#8217;s happening in New York City at The Merceron August 16th from 10am to 10pmWe will host 188体育手机投注 interested in discussing the fundamentals of Apple as a business and how it operates as a recurring revenue modelTitled &#8220;The Goose&#8230; <p>我们很自豪地宣布第二届<a href="https://ti.to/aaplsummit/apple-summit-nyc/en">投资者峰会</a>致力于Apple的长期投资者It&#8217;s happening in New York City at The Merceron August 16th from 10am to 10pm.</p> <p>We will host 188体育手机投注 interested in discussing the fundamentals of Apple as a business and how it operates as a recurring revenue model.</p> <p>Titled &#8220;The Goose That Lays The Golden Eggs&#8221; it was inspired by a <a href="http://www.all-fight.com/2013/08/26/the-innovators-curse/">blog post from 2013</a> foreshadowing how human nature instinctively discounts Apple and yet how that nature is mismatched to how Apple actually works.</p> <p>If you are curious about why Wall Street says &#8220;Sell&#8221; and Warren Buffet says &#8220;Buy&#8221; on Apple you might want to spend some time with us.</p> <h1>Agenda:</h1> <ul> <li>How to read the company’s performance given its published results我们将审查如何建立公司财务模型以及如何用它来预测下一季度We can go line-by-line through the income statement.</li> <li>How to think about the markets Apple considers important这是预测公司业绩超出其当前投资组合的最佳方式这需要校准您对创新的时间感What is too early, what is too small, what is something where Apple can’t exercise control? Innovation theory is essential to this understandingIf you know where Apple could go next and where it won’t it helps you build patience into your planning.</li> <li>How to understand Apple’s culture and its resources and processes进入关键的管理问题,苹果公司领导关注我有一些对话和有一些很棒的洞察力与前经理奇怪的是,这是Apple最大的竞争优势,其可持续性是关键的“护城河”问题Most 188体育手机投注 don’t even realize that this is the most important question for investors.</li> <li>How to understand the market’s reaction to Apple如果你理解上面的三个点有必要并置他人如何看待公司有一个引人注目的不对称信息的情况下,即使“每个人”是看相同的数据I use the fable of “The Goose that Lays the Golden Eggs” to best describe how most 188体育手机投注 react when they observe Apple苹果是不可能存在的,因此它是脆弱的,必须被视为一个瞬态系统它会导致大幅打折的市场这种认知错觉具有相反的意义:垄断被高估了,因为它们被视为无懈可击和永久性,即使它们很脆弱我使用antifragility作为另一个比喻史蒂夫乔布斯的许多轶事也表明他理解这种不对称并将其灌输给公司Investors need to understand this dynamic in order to profit from it.</li> </ul> <div></div> <p>Sign up <a href="https://ti.to/aaplsummit/apple-summit-nyc/en">here</a>.</p> <div class="mceTemp"></div> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/27/apple-summit-nyc/feed/ 2 8102年 每股收益 http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/25/eps/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/25/eps/#comments 周五,2018年7月25日15:12:08 +0000 Horace Dediu 金融 http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8098 三个月前,Apple提供了以下指导:随着我们进入6月季度,我们预计收入将在515亿美元至535亿美元之间我们预计毛利率在38%和38.5%之间我们预计运营成本在77亿美元和78亿美元之间We expect OI&#38;E to be about $400&#8230; <p>Three months ago Apple provided the following guidance:</p> <blockquote><p>As we move ahead into the June quarter,[…] We expect revenue to be between $51.5 billion and $53.5 billion我们预计毛利率在38%和38.5%之间我们预计运营成本在77亿美元和78亿美元之间我们预计OI&amp;E是约4亿美元And we expect our tax rate to be about 14.5%.</p></blockquote> <p>If we aim for a revenue figure close to the upper end of the range ($53.2 billion) and insert all the other figures (split the difference for OpEx) then then the company&#8217;s fiscal third quarter looks as follows:</p> <p style="padding-left: 30px">Revenues: $53.2b<br /> iPhone (units): 43.2 million<br /> iPad (units): 11.6 million<br /> Mac (units): 4.3 million<br /> Services ($): 9.5 billion<br /> Other products ($): 3.5 billion<br /> Gross margin (%): 38.6%</p> <p style="padding-left: 30px">EPS ($): $2.26</p> <p>This last figure, the earnings per share, is the most speculative because it depends on another guidance that Apple gave: a new $100 billion share repurchase authorization and the fact that it has no time frame的背景下,截至3月底,该公司之前已经完成了超过2750亿美元的3000亿美元的资本回报计划和100亿美元仍为6月季度份额不得不再买It&#8217;s unclear how much of the new authorization will be spent in the quarter.</p> <p>That spending could indicate the share count but there are issues with this calculation as wellThe $2.26 EPS I forecast is based on the assumption that the the same number of shares will be retired as in the previous quarter (about 89 million shares.) However the company spent $23.5 billion on repurchases of 137 million Apple shares through open market transactions (for an average price or $171.53, in-line with the quarter&#8217;s trading average).</p> <p>So why is the number of shares purchased (137 million) so different from the change in shares used to compute earnings per share (89 million)? I actually don&#8217;t know.</p> <p>The question of how many shares are available to calculating EPS is perhaps the last mystery in what is otherwise a very predictable businessThe revenue growth and implied iPhone growth are pretty transparent. Incidentally, the EPS I&#8217;m forecasting is equivalent to growth of 35.8% y/yThe share price is trading at multiples about half of this growth rate so it&#8217;s no wonder the company is spending most of the cash on re-purchases.</p> <p><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-8099" src="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Screen-Shot-2018-07-25-at-4.57.34-PM-620x392.png" alt="" width="620" height="392" srcset="http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Screen-Shot-2018-07-25-at-4.57.34-PM-620x392.png 620w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Screen-Shot-2018-07-25-at-4.57.34-PM-440x278.png 440w, http://www.all-fight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Screen-Shot-2018-07-25-at-4.57.34-PM-768x485.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></p> <p>How quickly the $100 billion re-purchasing authorization will be used is another questionThe effect in concentration of value per share could be profound as shown in the graph above which will have further implications on the &#8220;cash zero&#8221; direction for the company.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/07/25/eps/feed/ 32 8098 Asymcar 44:来自东京与Bertel Schmitt的观点 http://www.all-fight.com/2018/06/27/asymcar-44-the-view-from-tokyo-with-bertel-schmitt/ http://www.all-fight.com/2018/06/27/asymcar-44-the-view-from-tokyo-with-bertel-schmitt/#respond 2018年6月27日星期三15:49:50 +0000 Horace Dediu Asymcar http://www.all-fight.com/?p=8094 Bertel Schmitt, industry propagandist, journalist and legend joins us for a rousing conversation on production, low-end cars, Tesla, and the Great &#8216;Round-the-globe Automotive Factory tour Tour一个最有趣的节目我# 8217;记录强烈推荐听这里 <p>Bertel Schmitt, industry propagandist, journalist and legend joins us for a rousing conversation on production, low-end cars, Tesla, and the Great &#8216;Round-the-globe Automotive Factory tour Tour.</p> <p>One of the most fun shows I&#8217;ve ever recordedHighly recommended.</p> <p>Listen <a href="http://5by5.tv/asymcar/44">here.</a></p> http://www.all-fight.com/2018/06/27/asymcar-44-the-view-from-tokyo-with-bertel-schmitt/feed/ 0 8094